Midterm History vs. 2026 Reality: Will the “Party in Power” Curse Hold?
Since 1932, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections. Only three times in nearly a century has the president’s party gained seats—most recently in 2002, when George W. Bush’s 68 percent approval rating following 9/11 created an exception to the rule.
Why 2026 May Differ from Historical Patterns
Despite the historical headwinds, several factors complicate direct comparisons to past cycles:
Trump is a unique case. He is neither a traditional first-term president nor a traditional second-term president, serving nonconsecutive terms. This makes historical analogs imperfect.
The “wave” phenomenon has diminished. In 2022, despite Joe Biden’s 40 percent approval rating, Democrats lost only nine House seats—far below the historical average . Increased polarization and gerrymandering have reduced competitive districts to just 10-18 percent of all seats, down from 40 percent in the 1990s.
Where Chiropractic Fits In
For the chiropractic profession, these dynamics create both risk and opportunity.
The Risk: Losing Champions in a Narrow Playing Field
With 18 HOUSE SEATS considered toss up races, many pro-chiropractic incumbents face uncertain reelection bids . The Chiropractic Medicare Coverage Modernization Act (H.R. 539) currently has 152 co-sponsors in the House . If incumbent champions in competitive districts lose, those co-sponsorships disappear, and the legislation loses critical support just as it approaches potential consideration.
Every retirement or defeat of a co-sponsor resets the advocacy clock. New members must be educated, relationships must be built, and the bill must be reintroduced and re-explained. In a narrowly divided Congress, the loss of even a handful of champions can determine whether legislation advances or stalls.
The Opportunity: A Persuadable Electorate
Historical midterm losses often stem from independent voters swinging against the party in power. Currently, 45 percent of U.S. adults identify as independents.
These persuadable voters care about kitchen-table issues—including healthcare costs. A December 2025 poll found that 4 in 10 adults want the government to focus on healthcare affordability, putting it even with immigration as a top concern.
For chiropractic advocates, this creates openings. Candidates seeking independent votes are receptive to messages about cost-effective, drug-free care. The Medicare coverage gap which limits the scope of services reimbursable for chiropractors is a tangible issue that affects real voters and resonates across party lines.
The Bottom Line
Historical patterns suggest incumbents will lose House seats in 2026. The question is how many—and which ones. With control hinging on a handful of competitive districts, every incumbent champion matters, and every open seat presents an opportunity to elect new allies.
The stakes are clear. The playing field is narrow. And history suggests every race will count.